I am writing not to argue that the lockdown has not been a necessary measure. It is right that PM Modi took such a crucial step to slow COVID-19 spread. However, by now it is evident that there should have been better planning as to how the lockdown was enacted. The question here is – Was the lockdown implemented efficiently in the context of India?
Among all the predicaments during this lockdown, the migrant crisis stands out and will be remembered for years to come. The flaws in the existing lockdown protocols directly corresponded to the desperation faced by millions of workers as they walked home to various parts of the country, which could eventually result in the community spread of COVID-19 the leaders of India wanted to avoid in the first place. With recent relaxations, India taking the 2nd spot currently in the list of countries having highest number of COVID-19 cases proves that, this pandemic is very difficult to control in densely populated countries like India. India needed a different lockdown strategy instead of complete shutdown of everything to immediate effect.
Many millions of these migrant workers were forced to leave cities in droves as they marched back to their respective towns and villages by foot. It is gut wrenching to see migrant workers surviving off water and biscuits as they headed home hundreds of kilometers away, carrying children over their shoulders under the glaring heat of late March. As per the reports hundreds of these people died on the way to their destination.
Though the prime minister took the responsibility for these desperate measures during these desperate times and apologized for the trauma caused, the burden many millions of people had to endure because of government’s lack of empathy is resentful. It also showed the lack of preparedness for the consequences of an unplanned massive decision.
As WHO stated recently that the development of an effective vaccine for any kind of corona virus is difficult and mostly be ineffective even if a vaccine is developed (like HIV, Dengue, Malaria and many others which do not have effective vaccine to date). WHO also said that we need be prepared as COVID-19 is going to be a seasonal endemic similar to Flu or common cold or Dengue or other infections. Many experts foresee that herd immunity, social distancing and self-responsible precautionary habits may help us in coming months or years.
Children are also victims of Covid-19 lockdown with multiple side-effects on their physical and psycho-social well-being says Child Rights and You (CRY) report. More than half of the parents reported that their child became more agitated and anxious during the lockdown. 37 percent of respondents reported that the child’s mental well-being and happiness were affected due to lockdown.
These lockdown measures have hit many other private and public sectors in a huge scale which would take years to revive. In India up to 53% of businesses have specified a certain amount of impact of shutdowns caused due to COVID-19 on operations (FICCI survey). This includes large scale to small scale industry sectors like construction, automotive, apparel and textile, hospitality and tourism, transportation, energy, manufacturing, agriculture, entertainment industry to name a few.
By end of April the unemployment Rate had increased nearly 19% within a month, reaching 26% unemployment across India, according to the “Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy”. Around 14 crores Indians lost employment in the lockdown. More than 45% households across the nation have reported an income drop as compared to the previous year. Many people across all strata of society are negatively impacted in one way or the other.
As per many economists and financial experts, impact of COVID on world economy would be unprecedented. There is no doubt that COVID-19 will have a huge impact on the Indian economy. With no certainty on normalcy for next 12 months or more, businesses and the global economy will continue to be significantly impacted.
And finally, the stringent restrictive measures have been detrimental to psychic of many people according to many researches. Anxiety, depression, insomnia, behaviors of paranoia, aggressiveness, low mood, hopelessness are common mental disorders which result from social isolation. Some of the experts say that COVID-19 lockdown is world’s biggest psychological experiment for which we would pay price, mentally and physically.
National Commission for Women (NCW) has raised an urgent alert about the increasing number of domestic violence cases since the national lockdown began. Children too have increased vulnerability to domestic violence during this time. Increased stress levels, anxiety, job insecurity, financial worry, resorting to alcohol abuse and drug misuse other such behaviors of parents can be predictor of abuse.
In India. this Lockdown is likely to result in an additional 2.38 million unintended pregnancies, 679,864 childbirths, 1.45 million abortions, including 834,042 unsafe abortions and 1,743 maternal deaths, said the analysis by the Foundation of Reproductive Health Services India.
Social distancing, wearing masks, and hand hygiene works. We need a national plan on how to adopt and change behavior so that we slowly get accustomed to this new normal. It is not an easy task and it takes time for people in different communities to get aligned to these changes. Strategy could be similar to AIDS control where we need to adopt same behavior-change strategy. Together, these measures reduce the rate of transmission. However, till date, there is no evidence that lockdowns can cut down transmission. Despite the lockdown, cases in India have shown no decline. There has been a steady increase in the number of active cases since mid-March; what could be the reason for this? The reason is simple, faulty timing of the lockdown. New cases keep coming each day despite the most draconian lockdown on the planet, yet they are few.
The rationale for lockdown was to buy time to prepare ourselves in terms of logistics, preparing our hospitals, preparing our manpower, preparing guidelines, standard operating procedures. Lockdown as a tool only makes sense if you have the back up of laboratories, and shore up testing.
There are versions of lockdowns—total lockdowns implemented in China and ours. There are partial lockdowns implemented in many developed countries. Many countries including ours who took Neil Ferguson’s Imperial model of lockdown strategy are suffering due to repercussions of lockdown more than the COVID-19 itself. It is too late before all the nations realized the damage caused by this lockdown approach.
There is this third strategy countries like Sweden, Belarus, Japan, Thailand implemented – Which proved to be more effective minus all the suffering and trauma. Sweden is not under lockdown. It never went under lockdown. Schools and restaurants are open. People have been advised to maintain distance amongst themselves and apply common sense. They already claim that people have herd immunity. Same with Japan, Belarus and Thailand where they did not implement strict lockdowns. India can relate to Japan and Thailand in terms of population density and demography.
The difference is how the lockdown is enforced—as a public health measure or as a law and order issue. Countries that approached this as a public health measure have done well. A lockdown cannot be imposed on gut feeling, on political populism, it cannot be implemented by police like there is civil law and order unrest. There must be a science behind it; the decision must be evidence based.
A sudden raise in COVID positive cases after lockdown 4.0 shows that lockdown is largely unsuccessful. Its timing was too premature, draconian measures were imposed much before cases had begun to mount. No attempt was made by the government or the media to assure the public that all data on COVID-19 pointed to more than 80% people developing mild or no symptoms. Most infective people would simply shrug off the virus with absolutely no harm to themselves, especially if they were young (as most Indians are) or had no underlying disease. Only less than 10% of the people may need critical care and around 1% would succumb to the disease. This phenomenon is not different from many other infectious diseases .
Millions of people have been displaced, lakhs of businesses are shuttered, all schools closed, restaurants and hotels shut, and millions are without jobs or any means of sustenance. The poor have been hit like never and the middle class too will soon begin to crumble. Crores of children are round up with unimaginable psychological adverse effects, domestic and child abuse that largely go unreported must be substantially elevated. Most hospitals are lying empty with health workers not having enough work. The corporates have already announced a significant reduction in salaries of doctors and laying off staff.
Instead of telling people the true death ratio, the media keeps banging non-stop on the dangers of this virus. People have become paralyzed by fear, they are scared out of their minds. It will take a miracle to mitigate their apprehension or rather terror. Now we are in a situation where many people will keep themselves isolated and restricted even if the governments relaxes everything.
Sealing a hospital on finding a COVID-19 case, which kills 0.1% affected people, is absurd and creates fear in people. People go to hospitals for treatment but it creates a psychological fear by sealing hospitals. No wonder thousands of patients are petrified of visiting a hospital even as they suffer chest pains, paralysis, heart problems, kidney and liver issues and other serious diseases. There will be far more deaths due to serious chronic diseases in the next two to four years, than COVID-19. A bizarre and impossible situation has been created in this country.
In India, we have faltered with lockdown strategy to control this epidemic. It is time to realize that sealing hospitals, sealing borders and extending this lockdown indiscriminately will not prevent infections in the slightest way. If the lockdown is lifted, the virus will come roaring back because most people would not have developed immunity against it, while confined in their homes. The elderly will continue to be vulnerable. The politicians in their zest for lockdowns is totally oblivious of the fact that there are hundreds of other serious ailments apart from COVID-19 demanding both attention and treatment. Most people (80-90%) get mild to moderate symptoms and would recover quickly. Many hospitals and COVID treatment centers are approving these facts.
The repercussions of India’s lockdown strategy mentioned above may be a tip of the iceberg. The road to recovery and resurgence is going to be rough with no definite timelines.
~Praveen Jada
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Any views or opinions represented in above article are collected from various expert articles and blogs. Any views or opinions are not intended to malign anyone. This is for informational purpose and left to the reader’s discretion.